* Shades Bayo Onanuga
By Steve Osuji
YOUR REFORM IS NOT WORKING: This column always knew it and we're not ashamed to say that we said so. IMF last week in Lagos proclaimed it. NIGERIA'S ECONOMIC REFORM IS NOT WORKING, the Fund said at the unveiling of the Report on Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. The report minced no words as it stated plaintively that after about 18 months, there were no meaningful results to show.
Recall that EXPRESSO in its 2nd anniversary review of the Tinubu administration stated that the President had had nothing to report.
The report presented at the Lagos Business School, Lekki, Lagos, by the IMF Deputy Director, Catherine Patillo, revealed that Nigeria was conspicuously absent among reform success stories where Ivory Coast, Ghana and Zambia were the shining examples.
DIRE INDICATORS: According to the report, Nigeria's economy is performing at 3.19 percent growth rate, well below Sub-Saharan zone average of 3.6 per cent. In fact, Nigeria is growing at half the pace of the thriving countries. Macroeconomic imbalances while reducing in most other countries under reference, are worsening in Nigeria.
Instances abound: Nigeria's exchange rate regime is the most unstable and her naira among the worst performing currencies. While most countries are experiencing reduced foreign exchange pressures, Nigeria's local currency depreciates and instability remains a source of concern.
Rising debt service obligations consume substantial portions of revenue thereby, limiting resources available for development. Inflation remains high at 33.8 per cent, far exceeding Nigeria's 21 percent target.
IMF SHADES BAYO ONANUGA AND HIS TEAM: IMF pointedly singled out weak communication strategies as undermining the impact of the reform in Nigeria. ( We don't need the IMF to tell us: a horde over a dozen-member communication team led by a certain Bayo Onanuga, who seems to know nothing about strategic communications, is a minus in the equation. All they are obsessed with is Igbo hate and relentless attack of their perceived number one enemy, Peter Obi).
The Fund calls for the rethinking of the reform strategies. It called for greater attention to communication and engagement strategies, as well as devising compensatory measures and rebuilding trust in public institutions.
A NO REFORM, REFORM: The twin policies of hurried removal of a so-called fuel subsidy and an unthinking leveling of the naira cannot by any means be described as a reform. They are at best, far-reaching policy decisions. A national economic reform is made of more rigorous stuff.
There's neither an arrowhead nor a think-tank leading Tinubu's so-called reform. There's no thrust nor timelines and expectations. So there was really no reform in the true sense of it about ab initio.
INEPTITUDE, CORRUPTION, HOLD SWAY: Poor, inept leadership, corruption and politicking have been the order of the day since Tinubu took over. Nigeria and Nigerians have been held in thrall since May 29, 2023 when Tinubu took the mantle of office.
Most Nigerians are left roiling in the muck since Tinubu seized power while Bayo Onanuga and his team thrive in lies and propaganda.
Even the basics (like fixing refineries) and the low hanging fruits (cutting waste), have been most difficult for President Tinubu to attain.
THE LILLIPUT SYNDROME: President Tinubu is neither a statesman nor a great mind. He's Lilliputian in every respect. But that's not a handicap by itself. It's the inability to get giants around him that's his undoing.
Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Goodluck Jonathan and even military President, Ibrahim Babangida, among others, all managed to seek out some of Nigeria's best minds to run the Executive Council.
Tinubu on the other hand, has proved to be the most nepotistic leader Nigeria ever had. His Federal Executive Council is filled with his errand boys and panhandlers.
Most of them are inexperienced people ensconced in positions way above their ken. Let loose on the national treasury, many of the cabinet members and Tinubu's aides have become like wide-eyed sea pirates on a plundering spree! Of course, no economic policy will add up in a situation of perverse and maniacal corruption!
BUHARI, EMEFIELE HAVING THE LAST LAUGH: In just a little over two years, Tinubu has crashed Nigeria's economy, bringing the populace to their knees.
The late President Mohammadu Buhari, Tinubu's predecessor said Nigerians would miss him shortly after he had left office. Today, it's a prophesy come true.
Buhari had no pretensions to being an economic reformer. He only cared deeply about his country and her people. He positioned the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, an economist and experienced banker, as the arrowhead of the economy with a singular mandate: to ensure that national interest superseded all other economic posturing or influences.
This explains why there was measured removal of the so-called petrol subsidy (and this has been the practice for decades); Naira devaluation was also gradual and graduated in relation to Nigeria's capacity to produce.
Buhari and Emefiele were conscious of the fact that Nigeria's economy couldn't compete in a free-for-all open market economy. Supporting the naira and maintaining subsidy in the petrol pump price weren't stupid decisions. On the contrary, they were protective cushions for the populace.
REFORM WITHOUT PRODUCTION: While the Tinubu administration mouths "reform" without requisite production (merely creating paper money), the Buhari administration curbed excessive importation of food items and primary products (like staple foods, toothpick and cooking oils) that any nation should be able to produce.
There were 44 items altogether. By this stricture, Nigerians were pushed to engage in basic production and primary processing capabilities.
For instance through Buhari's tenure Nigeria's rice production capacity grew exponentially from less than ten rice mills in 2015 to nearly 70 integrated mill. Most of them were financed through the CBN special lending schemes. The rice value chain grew in leaps.
Under Tinubu, in the last two years, production has regressed all round. Import restrictions have been torn down; toothpicks, table water and even Chinese garri are now found in the supermarkets.
Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RIFAN) are regretting their massive investments in the rice value chain. Tinubu didn't only throw the borders open, he gave duty waivers and funded rice importers who are of course, his cronies. Imported rice is gradually shutting down Nigeria's fledgling mills.
Instead of learning from Emefiele and adopting some of his positive policies, they deny his contribution and persecute him.
A SURFEIT OF PROPAGANDA AND POLITICS: The bane of the Tinubu administration are poor leadership, propaganda and petty politics. It's a regime starkly devoid of any modicum of emotional intelligence or the nobility of rarefied intellect. There's a dire absence of light.
Tinubu's Presidency is filled with plumbers and dog-handlers. There's a total absence of merit and good sense. It's the blind leading the deaf mute. For nearly two years, Nigeria has no ambassadors across the world and her foreign minister is a faceless paperweight. The result is that Nigeria is a dark, black spot among the universe of nations. Attachés are what they are - attachments who are not invited to high-level briefings or state luncheons.
AND THEY SPEAK OF REFORM: What reform? Nigeria's woes are numerous and multiplying. Yet all we hear is 2027 reelection. Apparently, they plan to steal the mandate a second time because no Nigerian will vote for a colossal failure of a president!
...Steve Osuji, a renowned veteran journalist and widely read columnist, is a former editor at Guardian, Thisday and New Age Newspapers. He is a member of the Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE). Osuji can be reached through his E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. NNL.
